i think we will have a very long bear market (until 2023). thats the reason why:
i hope i will be wrong but thats a possible scenario.
That is not a very long bear market, the halving is coming in 2024 so we should expect a bear market until at least then.
So a short bearmarket for you would be if it last until the halving in 2024?
What would a long one look like for you?
Earlier or later the 100k are gonna get cracked but it seems right now that it is still a long road till there
Do you think that if we break the old ATH of 61K we go rather straight to 100K?
in average a bearmarket is about 6 months long and a bullmarket about 22 months.
so, 2023 (could also be december) is very long for me.
So you would say beginning of 2023 the bullmarket will start again?
These average bearmarket data is representative for bearmarkets in crypto only or?
Cause I really think the current econmic recession could extend the crypto winter
Also I found this data on duration of recession: the average length of a recession varies in a narrow range between 12 and 26 months
Assuming the recession has a negative impact on the crypto winter it might extend it to a year?!
Curious to find out about 
No thats the normal cycle look at the charts and halving’s, I am pretty sure we will be bear until next halving. @ZitaDonDon , thats not long mate and anways the longer the better, best time to accumulate. @Shrimp the ATH, was 69k I think but no way we go to 100k straight away, just remember each cycle is less sever that last, this means less chance to make money as the market levels out, but who knows this is crypto hey
well, maybe we have to think in a new way. what if it will never be the same again? what if we’ll never see these ath again?
No of course we will see the ATH again, BTC will probably got to 500k but what I am saying is the amount of money we can make between bear markets and bull markets are getting less and less looking at the charts of each halving, if that makes sense 
500K is absolute bullshit in my oppinion. we never touched 100K. regardless of whether halving should play a role or not
I also think we might need to wait until the next halving. In this market situation, there is no sign of the stopping of the free falling. And we shouldn’t forget when we compare these cycles that regulations will most likely to come up for the time, which can change our prediction drastically in both ways.
We don’t have to forget the historical period we are living in: a pandemic, a potential “third world war”, economic recession, political instability. From my understanding, the war in Ukraine has generated quite a bit of discussion about the crypto industry. It is not a case that the bullish market ended around November/December of last year. Apart from all the hoaxes that run on the internet, it is not wrong to consider the fact that BTC donations are actually being used to bring about humanitarian aid for Ukrainian residents. For me, the war has made one thing at least clear: btc seems to have intrinsic value.
Maybe previously crypto which was just a meme like Shiba Inu had also been donated in large amounts to India for humanitarian assistance. But quite a big problem occurred, such as kusilatang in cashing the shiba inu as real money. tax policies that curb transactions.
In some ways kropto is enough to have real value and movement but institutions and banks are still making it difficult, but with the resilience of the community so far quite solid I think, just comparing memes of coins that I think have no value can be quite valuable. I think we will see the public view of crypto and bitcoin will be quite large.
I just want them to quickly resolve the war problem which only worsens the situation and restores the economy. they may think war is a source of gold, But the humanity at stake in that danger must end.
And I think will have to wait for the G20 movement to see if we are going to be bullish in the near term or not.
The current decline has not yet reached its lowest point, usually if it is technical, the recovery will occur after a correction is high enough, and is initiated by a sideway, predicting the recovery process will occur between six months to one year.
We’ll see this during winter like this, if you buy bitcoin, it will accumulate in the medium or long term. Meanwhile, in the short term, it will not rise to its highest point. Therefore, short-term traders can choose token heads or bears that move against the price of bitcoin derivatives, the algorithm against.
In my opinion, we will need to wait more than 6 months, I think something between 1/2 years. This bear market is different from the previous ones: crypto is more correlated with other assets these days than it was during previous bear markets. And don’t forget about the influence of media narrative. So it stands to reason that this time will last only as long as the wider economic/political issues do.
I agree with you here!
This one might last long and will dry out a lot of projects
The economic situation and the the ukrain war is just stuff which might not go away so soon and potentially even worsen
I can see that this last till the next halving
Oh this will absolutely last to the halving no doubt it in my mind and I happy with that more time to buy, but two things to remember the worse inflation gets the more btc becomes a safe haven, so if the buying power falls alot, at btc as at the bottom then your best bet is to put it all in btc right, look at the graph its been going up since we took money of the gold standard 1970.
Second think is the war could change for good at any moment, look at covid, gone in months, but Like i said I am happy to buy for 2 years indeed, I HOPE it lasts to 2024.
I’m not sure about it, why you think this? I am afraid the war will be the slowdown number 1 for crypto’s growth, but I’m curious to hear your different opinion on this.
As mentioned in this article:
"[…] Cryptocurrency can allow financial criminals, drug dealers, and tax cheats to move money around in the shadows — potentially opening the door for Putin and his cronies to evade the economic sanctions that serve as the centerpiece of the international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”
Sad, but true.
Save heaven against inflation doesn’t happen right now as we see. I also feel the war is a slow path, and there seems no end of it: people just tend to lose interest over time on these issues. Since the previous ATH was broken, I also expect a longer bear market this time. That is something which have never happened before.
When this happened that I realized that russia potentially could evade sanctions via crypto it really put me in a controversy with myself since I on one hand really belief in the benefits of having a decentralized monetary system yet on the other hand than had to bite in the bad apple of well this also can be used by bad actors…