Learning new things in the bearmarket: Wallet Watching

Chat / Discussion
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The beautiful thing about blockchains is that you can see what a wallet is holding and when it is sending funds somewhere else.
Apparently by tracking the right whale wallets this can used to gain signals for your own market behavior.

For exemple if you find a wallet which in the past had a 80% success rate in finding small cap gems it might be good to look into the projects which this wallet just bought.
So far the theory!

Is anyone using this technique to gain alpha?
Does anyone has some experience with it positive or negative?

I would love to hear your thoughts on it since I am eager to learn more about it and dive into it.

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I will be honest, this is something I never did before! How can you monitor whale wallets? If I want to start learning more about it, where should I start?

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I only experienced the basics of wallet checking, but here is my take:

  • There are specialized TG bots which track big cryptocurreny moves. Like Telegram: Contact @whale_alert_io. For example, when you see a huge amount of BTC transferred to coinbase (or any other central exchange) you can expect those to be sold later on, and you can expect a price drop. On the other way, if you see the coins transferred to a wallet, you can believe that the person is going to hold it.

  • You can also use all networks explorer, just like you can check the whales on Radix on radixscan.io. For example, Top 100 Richest Bitcoin Addresses and Bitcoin distribution is a very great website. You can check each whale’s wallet with is incoming and outgoing transaction. You may see from this, when they starto to buy again, which is a bullish sign.

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@TamasH Thanks for the insights, I will surely analyze this further since it is something that could be extremely useful. Have you ever used this kind of “monitor the whale and invest” strategy?

From my point of view, rule number 1 should always be DYOR, but it seems that this sort of “wallet watching” can easily be considered a supplement of dyor.

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Hello @TamasH . Thank you very much for this information. I didn’t knew this possibility. Dou you personally use it? have there been cases in the past where, for example, large amounts of btc were sent from a wallet to an exchange and the price fell as a result?

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I also never did it before but I was aware of this tool!

I think to start it might be the smartest to get familiar with the tools and maybe concentrate only on one chain explorer.
Than find wallets which did trackable good decisions

either by timing the market right (buy and sell signals)
or by making the right shots early (gaining insights about potential gems)

Yet also I think it is important to be aware that for sure these big wallets don’t only use one wallet but also burner wallets or wallets for high risk plays

The biggest struggle with this is to find the right wallets

Nansen.ai (https://www.nansen.ai/) might be another useful tool but I believe it is not completely free and I have to admit I myself know still little about it

That is for sure the case but it can maybe help in the research or even open new possible investments since you might find coins you never heard of

To be honest I don’t know any real case about it but I think for sure the whale alerts of huge sums of BTC to exchanges can influence the market since investors than expect the price to drop.
Problem here is that this can also be used to manipulate the market!!!

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@andrea @ZitaDonDon my reply for you guys:

So I have only tried to monitor this wallets in this current downfall. But I’ll be honest I didn’t see much. Many whales didn’t sell at all, so I couldn’t really predict that a big crash is coming. I start to believe that it is hard to use it for that reason: it might be easier, to start buying, when they start buying. :wink: I already see a couple of big whales starting to buy around now.

So yeah, mixed feelings, we will see if we really go up here.

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Yep, this is the main reason I’m considering adopting this “wallet watching” strategy. Sometimes it is not so easy to scroll an entire list of cryptos from coinmarketcap or coingeko for hours. Knowing that there are whales that mark out the path is time-saving.

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Can I ask how did you determine which whales to watch? How do you differentiate between smart whale and not so smart whale?
Because that I know very little about yet how to find good whale wallets

For me this is also a main reason to get further into it because it might help to filter even though it is still important to stay careful since whales could also manipulate and make you believe what you want to see

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